21st Nov 2008

What Next? ..................... that is a very common question being asked these days by people,I always say,"The thing which goes up has to come down",that is how market is behaving now days.But dont loose your heart,and if you do,then Market is not for you.Market wants strong and patient fighter.Ask your self are you?

              Crude prises dropped 7%,well below USD  50 per barrel. This is lowest level it has touched   since May, 2005. Deutsche Bank is forecasting that Crude Oil may fall further to the extent of USD  40 per barrel by the end of this year. Falling crude prises is definitely a positive indication for cheaper fuel, but however, cheaper fuel cannot create demand in the market for commodities. Present scenario indicates that next six months one should not expect drastic  change in the Market situation on account of many negative influences in the Market. But on the positive side we can expect change in other terms. We may be able to see down rally in the FMCG sector and daily need products.

                        There is world wide money crunch which has resulted dollar rate to shoot up. Even rupee rate against dollar is above Rs. 50.50. This will have negative effect on IT sector. We will see more and more employment cuts from IT industry. One has to be more & more careful for their survival as a employee or as a employer. Finance Ministry has, however assured that by the end of January, 2009 dollar rate will fall by more than 5% of the present value. If at all it happens then by mid of May, 09 stocks of It sector companies will shown well above 15% of the present prises. It is at this point advisable that we can hold stock up to 5% to 8% of our Port folio in the stocks of IT industry accumulating at every fall of Market. It is need less to say that Infosys, TISCO, Satyam & Wipro etc are the leaders in It Industry.

                        Recently Prime Mister quoted at a function of Hindustan Times Leadership Summit that India is in position to achieve 8% growth during the fiscal year. 8% growth is quite a positive sign and with this we can expect strong economy in near future.

                        With all the available information and present volatile situation I expect Market will take appox. 18 months   to come out of the present scenario. If compared with Market at 2004 level we can say that it still well above Green  and I recommend that this is the best opportunity for investors  new or present one to invest. I strongly recommend that With every fall of Market accumulate stocks as a long term investment.

                        Market is having resistance of 6400 BSE level. If we consider this level we can still gain by doing short term trading at a lesser risk. In my opinion JPASSOCIATEs, HDIL, L & T can be good option to cover 7 – 10% profit on total involvement .

                       In this volatile market situation one can be more & more wealthy by investing at every opportunity that comes from the market. After all Market is not that bad provided you  keep your eyes open.

                        In the next article we see the face, figure & facts of Real Estate Industry in the present scenario.    

                    Last but not least we should always follow that “ NEVER WORK FOR MONEY, LET MONEY WORK FOR YOUI”

 

Have a happy trading and wealthy life but be safe. 

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D shivani
Nagpur